Tuesday, 14 January, 2020

Clandestine Deal between US & Russia over Cuba and Crimea

The latest progress in the relationship between US and Cuba, resulting in normalizing their relationship after 50-year hostility, and silence of Moscow towards it, have raised some questions in the minds of analysts around the world.

It stands to reason that Cuba has long been the red line for US, considered as its backyard where US Army, in certain periods, stood strongly up to the other countries which were being at the whim of occupying it. For example, during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the installation of missiles in Cuba by Soviet Union headed both superpowers to the brink of a nuclear war.

At that time, Washington warned Moscow about the consequences of installing missiles in Cuba. Immediately, after that, Moscow prepared itself to fend off the probably nuclear attacks.

For the time being, after 50 years of this incident, the relationship between US and Cuba is being normalized and US is certain enough about having dominance over its backyard. While US is using its adopted approach against Russia for further pressure, how is Russia at a standstill as opposed to USSR concerns?

Is Cuba no longer of great strategic importance for Russia or there is a clandestine deal between US and Russia? In where is silence of Russia rooted?

One of the hypotheses proposed by analysts is concerned with “Crimea”. In 2014, the Congress of Crimea strongly affirmed the annexation of Crimea to Russia, whereupon in a poll, more than 93% of Crimean people confirmed this annexation. Consequently, Putin signed the annexation bill, stressing “inseparable” links of Crimea to Russia whereas the other countries put the blame on Russia for occupying Crimea.

Since around one year of this incident has passed and many believed that the dominance of US over Cuba is in return for the dominance of Russia over Crimea, but the occurred incidents as well as the silence of Moscow can support this hypothesis that there may be a clandestine deal between US and Russia on Crimea and Washington accepted the annexation of Crimea to Russia in return for the silence of Russia regarding Cuba.

In the meantime, EU can be the loser of this deal because US has pushed EU to impose sanctions on the energy sector of Russia just to put it under pressure. Accordingly, EU has tried to reduce oil import from Russia. But Russia’s Foreign Ministry called the imposed sanctions on Crimea “absolutely unacceptable” and told that Russia would produce an appropriate reaction to it.

Suppose there is a clandestine deal between US and Russia regarding Crimea and Cuba, but it is important to notice what will be happened in the relationship between Russia and EU in the future. Is EU winner or loser of this deal?

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