Why Israel doesn’t attack Iran?
These days we hear lots of rumors about attacking Iran. If we want to fully understand the scene firstly we have to see whether military attack is possible or it’s just an option? After that we have to review whether this action is favorable to Israeli interests and goals or strategically it is a wrong decision? The following reasons that can be referred to many eastern references suggest that military attack on Iran (wide or limited) against its nuclear program or any other thing is a completely wrong and irrational decision that not only does not carry any merits for the invaders but also it could have damaging effects for them
Firstly we have to notice that theoretically, air attack on Iran could be possible but at the same time potentially impossible. One of the reasons for Israeli air force success in attacking nuclear compounds in Iraq (Osirak) is the appropriate distance between Israel and Iraq that gave the Israeli fighters the possibility to fly under the radar line to reach their targets without air refueling however, the long distance between Tehran and Tel-Aviv may result into many technical problems. Israeli air force officers, Tel-Aviv university defense analysts, and other western analysts who studied the air raid possibilities have concluded that there is no guaranty to succeed in this air strike against Iran’s nuclear structure.
If Israel wants to perform the same operation that did in Iraq, it has to use a combination of F-161 and F-16D fighters. These aircrafts have a good range but do to air refueling that has to be done in long distances, it may not be a successful operation. Furthermore, Israeli air force has a major weakness in refueling facilities (it still uses old tankers such as Boeing 707) which is also considered another problem.
They have to cross through some Persian Gulf Arab countries or Jordan and Iraq or Syria and Turkey. Now that middle-east peace process is facing many problems and everyone has made sure that Benjamin Netanyahu government is not seeking peace, it is expected that none of these countries would allow Israeli aircrafts to use their space to pass through.
From the military perspective, Israel cannot use nuclear bomb against Iran. Israel that possess 100-200 nuclear warhead is considered the only country in middle-east that has nuclear weapons although many military and defense experts believe that simply possessing these weapons does not lead Israel to win the battle against Iran. In reaction to Israeli attacks, Iran would use long-range missiles to hit Israeli critical spots and the damages causing by Iranian retaliatory fire prevents Israel from nuclear attack on Iran.
Israel is a very small country many people are centralized in a small area around Tel-Aviv. Since more than 70% of the population and 80% of Israeli infrastructures are located there, this area is considered too vulnerable and Israel refrains from nuclear attack on Iran.
Total airlines paralysis in Persian Gulf region is one of the hidden outcomes of the attack. Any military conflict with Iran will disrupt the airlines over the Persian Gulf and it causes huge financial losses therefore, people who want to flee the battle zone will have to escape overland and what worsens the situation, things may get out of control in nuclear war.
Military attack will lead to extreme air pollution on Persian Gulf area and Iran that impairs the vision and causes disturbance in airliners and military aircrafts. Water supplies also could be damaged intended or randomly.
Israel claims that the goal of attacking Iran is to stop the nuclear program however, a military attack not only does not stop the program, but also it would set the background to move towards nuclear weaponry.
In case Iran gets under attack, then it will try to reach for any kind of military equipment including nuclear weapons under the cover of self-defense.
The point is basically, military attack cannot stop Iran’s nuclear program or hinder it for a long time. American and Israeli experts have expected that a military attack could only delay the program for at most two years and that’s why many western strategists believe it doesn’t worth to get into a war with Iran.
Iran’s nuclear technology and utilization of these establishments is a national science of the country. If we assume that these establishments get damaged, Iranian scientists and scholars would reclaim and refurbish them in a very short period of time.
Next point is how a military attack could impact Iran’s domestic atmosphere. Every western intelligence analyst believes that in case of military attack on Iran, they will witness two main outcomes. Firstly, a serious domestic unity will be formed against western countries and secondly, there will be no sign of any opposition group inside the country and they will disappear in no time.
Next, we want to discuss Iran’s ability to respond and whether it can change the battle into a regional and cross-regional conflict. These days that the Americans have focused on Quds force, are fully aware of its capabilities and the allies abroad the country. The most important issue is, Arab Spring and the resulting excitation against Israel and U.S have made Iran much more powerful to respond to any kind of foreign threat. Iran’s response to Israel’s attack will lead to a major military crisis in the region. It is expected that in response to the attack, Iran will air-bomb Israel while its allies such as Hamas and Hezbollah will also stand in the same line causing unstable security in the region.
From the other hand, we have to look at the subject from the U.S viewpoint that in case of any war, it will cost too much for the U.S. when some countries are intend to take risky and unsure steps, they have to consider two main issues; fist, whether it’s practical or not and second how much it will cost them? Regarding the fact that Israel will face a serious threat, obviously this regime will try to downplay the expenses of its action especially for U.S. The existence of many American bases around Iran as well as tens of thousands of its troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Bahrain are all considered easy targets for Iran.
We should also take a look at the U.S economic interests damages caused by Israel’s attack. If Iran wants to stop sea transport in Hormuz Channel for a short period (about 40% of total oil passes through this spot), there will be a huge decease in oil price which will weaken the world’s markets – the factor that will cause a terrible impact to the improvement process of U.S fragile economy-. These economic and financial doubts could turn into global disasters.
Finally, we should mention the disagreement of countries such as Russia and China. Russian authorities are feeling to be the victims of U.S regional plans especially after the recent IAEA report. Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has warned against any adventurous action against Iran saying; Attacking Iran is a huge mistake that might carry unimaginable consequences and our approach is clear. Many leaders believe this matter is completely irrational and will have negative consequences. In fact, we can conclude that Israeli authorities are intend to inject fear and anxiety into public opinion so they can hide their political and military weakness because they do not have the enough strength to attack Iran and they are fully aware that in case of any careless move toward war with Iran, they will be the underdog.