Monday, 08 January, 2018

US Elections: New President Policies and Relations

By: Abdolreza Ghofrani, Senior International Expert  

Though US presidential elections are still more than three months way, the history has showed that in these elections, even in short time before voting, anticipating the results is not that easy, because there are always surprises that may change the whole outcome of the elections as well as the fortune of either candidate.

Everybody may evoke the 2000 campaigns between two incumbents Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush. In that, the final outcome was one of the closest presidential elections in the nation’s history. The result of the election centered on Florida, where the margin of victory caused a compulsory recount.

The disputes in select counties started additional recounts, and this dispute ultimately reached the United States Supreme Court. The Court’s combative 5-4 decision in Bush v. Gore, announced on December 12, 2000, ended the recounts, effectively awarding Florida’s votes to Bush and granting him the victory.

This has been the fourth election in U.S. history in which the final winner failed to win at least a plurality of the popular vote (after the elections of 1824, 1876, and 1888). Later studies have reached conflicting opinions on who would have won the recount had it been allowed to proceed.

At the time, there were rumors of the rigs in those elections though the facts are still remains unknown. Now, however, after 16 years, in upcoming elections, the murmurs and rumors of the issue of the rigs are occasionally heard, and this time around by both main parties.

This time around, however, unlike twelve years ago, the Republicans seem to be more concerned of the possible mischief in the elections. Though there may be rigs, as some analysts believe, in this election, what matters more and pretty different now is the personality, behaviors, visions and discourse of both incumbents.

On one side, the former first lady of United States, ex- senator of the largest state, New York, and the previous secretary of state is Mrs. Hillary Clinton; and more important of all, she is the wife of the former US President Bill Clinton with too many experiences in elections, administration, politics and foreign policies. These are all great assets and advantages Mrs. Clinton actually does have.

So if there is no special surprise through the next three months, she has a higher chance to win the election, being the first female president of the United States that sounds to be a good gain for her too.

On the other side, there is a highly successful business man and wealthy candidate, Donald Trump, having apparently no experience in politics. Though there may be too little knowledge of his previous  political career and personality, and now the time left is too short to get some, since ever he has appeared making himself a presidential candidate, Mr. Trump has showed, or in better words, proved that he talks his mind recklessly with no care of consequences.

Of course, given his brilliant successes in economics and trade, certainly, he should have been a clever and intelligent person with remarkable capabilities and therefore nobody, considering the present realities. may deny it Moreover, in his speeches, Donald Trump has so far showed that possesses an influential character and so, since ever he proceeded the presidential race  he could have deeply   impressed his audiences and supporters.

His unpredictable behaviors, however, has made many troubles for advisers as well as his campaign group. One should not lose sight of the fact that ordinary Americans are easily impressed by propaganda.Mr.Trumps extensive publicity and giving great promises has so far helped him to attract a great number of supporters.

But, New York Times in an analysis a few days before reported that the influential leaders of Republican Party have voiced their concerns on Mr. Trump’s strange behaviors and words.

They obviously, the report added, intended to distance themselves from him taking a separate way even if the next president be elected from Democratic Party. This, definitely, will split the Republican Party, the greatest conservative establishment in the States, into different groups.

Trump has now well appreciated this thus trying to mend his mistakes in one way or another. But nobody can predict what will come next and we need just to wait and see.

Besides, this historical proved point does not need to be ignored that the presidential candidates usually make promises before the elections, but they have done the other way around after being elected. 2016 presidential election is definitely cannot be an exception.

Last but not the least is the effects, regardless of who will be in the White House in January, that forthcoming US election will have on the relations between this country and other states of the world. More important of all, what will be the position of future US administration on JPOA with Iran?

If Trumps wins, as he and some other Republicans have said before, he would tear down JPOA.However, as mentioned earlier; this is a remote possibility; because the candidates’ words and promises are usually pretty different from their deeds in post elections and just when they take office.

Furthermore, there has been historically exceptional that by changing the administration, the new one abruptly nullifies the treaties and agreements, though those treaties may not be fully executed.

If Hillary Clinton is elected and the Democrats win the majority in the Congress, naturally JPOA will remain intact. Because for Democrats JPOA is a great achievements of Obama Administration.

But the point is as to how JOPA will be implemented? Or will the next president (if be a democrat) will fully execute the instrument?

 The answer to this question at present circumstances is a little hard. But in her campaign speeches Mrs. Clinton has implicitly indicated that at least she would not be as flexible in implementing JOPA as her predecessor.

So the forthcoming conditions, as far as the relations  with US is concerned ,for all countries of the world including our own will not be quite certain till the results of the US elections and the policies of new administration in that country is quite well known.

So countries cannot but wait and with their best national interest in mind, closely monitor the developments. Because all these developments closely relates to the outcome of US elections

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